3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2025 Jan 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 22-Jan 24 2025 is 4 (.33below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Jan 22       Jan 23       Jan 24
00-03UT       3.33         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       2.33         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       3.00         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       2.33         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         4.00     
15-18UT       1.00         1.33         2.67     
18-21UT       1.33         1.67         4.00     
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         4.33     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2025

              Jan 22  Jan 23  Jan 24
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 22 2025 1108 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2025

              Jan 22        Jan 23        Jan 24
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, over 22-24 Jan due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.