Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 May 08 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity remained low. Region 4079 (N08W38, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced numerous weak C-class flares during the period. The strongest was a C4.0/Sf flare observed at 07/0252 UTC. The region has shown some slight decay on its northern flank. Region 4081 (N07W09, Dai/beta) showed some consolidation in its lead and trailer portions, with some minor intermediate spot emergence. Region 4082 (S11E21, Dai/beta-gamma) added some minor intermediate spots and produced weak, C-class activity. C-class activity was also observed from an unnumbered area near the SE limb. A relatively fast, narrow CME eruption was seen to the S-SE in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at about 06/1620UTC. The CME is associated with a filament eruption centered near S20W01 as seen in SUVI 304 imagery at about 06/1630 UTC. Analysis indicated the ejecta would pass well south of the Sun-Earth line, and should not have any impacts at Earth. A large-scale filament eruption occurred near N45W20 seen in SUVI 284 and 304. The filament began lifting off as early as 06/1445 UTC through 06/1700 UTC. Analysis revealed the majority of the ejecta will be well north of the ecliptic, and no Earth-directed component is expected. A third filament eruption was observed off the NW from about 07/0900-1000 UTC. LASCO imagery observed the fast-moving CME signature off the NW beginning at approximately 07/0924 UTC. As expected, with the trajectory being so far north, analysis indicated a miss well above Earth with no impacts expected. The fourth and final filament eruption analyzed this period was off the NE from about 07/1116 UTC through 07/1348 UTC as seen in SUVI 284 imagery. LASCO imagery observed a CME signature at about 07/1124 UTC. Initial analysis indicated most of this ejecta will likely pass north of Earth as well, but additional analysis is under way to confirm.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over 08-10 May.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 12,994 pfu observed at 07/0525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below S1 (Minor) levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 08-10 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 08-10 May.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

The solar wind environment remained enhanced this period due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-6 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -5 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from ~600 km/s to under 450 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast

A gradual return to background conditions is likely over 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. An additional enhancement is likely on 09 May due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. CH HSS enhancements are expected to persist on 10 May.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 08 May as CH HSS influence wanes. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of influence from another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 10 May due to continued influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.