Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Jan 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity remained at R1-Minor levels due to an M1.3 flare at 22/1108 UTC from Region 3961 (S10W14, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with this flare was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 561 km/s. This region also produced a C7.2 flare observed at 22/0634 UTC. Slight decay occurred in the intermediate area of Region 3961. Slight growth was observed in Region 3967 (S17E19, Eai/beta-gamma). Only minor changes were noted in the rest of the spotted regions. A CME, directly mostly off the SE limb, began at 21/1145 UTC observed in GOES/CCOR-1 imagery. This CME was associated with the M3.3/Sf flare observed at 21/1039 UTC from Region 3967. Modelling indicated a potential glancing blow mid to late on 24 Jan.

Forecast

M-class flares are likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3, Strong), on 22-24 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate with a chance for high levels through 24 Jan. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 22-24 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind speed continued to decline from approximately 570 km/s to near 500 km/s as CH HSS influence waned. Total field ranged from 3-6 nT while the Bz component was between +4 to -5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative until 21/1725 UTC when it became variable between positive and negative sectors.

Forecast

A slow return to nominal levels is expected through 23 Jan as HSS influence subsides. Around mid to late on 24 Jan, a glancing blow from the 21 Jan CME is likely to enhance solar wind parameters.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Jan followed by mostly quiet conditions on 23 Jan as HSS influence diminishes. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, is likely mid to late on 24 Jan due to the arrival of a glancing blow from the 21 Jan CME.