Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2025 Jan 24 0030 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C9.1 at 23/0203 UTC from Region 3961 (S10W48, Ekc/beta-gamma). New flux emergence was observed in the leading area of Region 3961 while the mid and trailing spots decayed moderately. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3967 (S15W15, Bxi/beta) and 3972 (S19W07, Dso/beta). New spots reemerged in Region 3971 (N14W35, Dao/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Прогноз

M-class flares are likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3, Strong), on 24-26 Jan.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,920 pfu at 23/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate to high levels on 24 Jan. A decrease to normal to moderate levels is likely on 25-26 Jan with the arrival of the 21-22 Jan CMEs. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 24-26 Jan.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced with solar wind speed averaging 450 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-6 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Прогноз

Around mid to late on 24 Jan, a glancing blow from the 21 Jan CME is likely to enhance solar wind parameters. A further enhancement is expected early to midday on 25 Jan with the arrival of the 22 Jan CME.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Прогноз

By mid to late on 24 Jan, a glancing blow from the first of two CMEs is likely to cause unsettled to active conditions. By early to midday on 25 Jan, the 22 Jan CME is expected to arrive causing a further increase to active to G1 (Minor) storming, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm levels. Waning CME conditions are likely on 26 Jan with unsettled to active periods.