Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 April 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
May, 02 May, 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 397 km/s at
30/2021Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/0826Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/1640Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 May, 03 May).
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 102 Predicted 01 May-03 May 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 007/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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