Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 27/0752Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 27/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
27/1541Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 400 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (30 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 088 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 085/080/080 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 011/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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