Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
23/0203Z from Region 3961 (S09W48). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 22/2259Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 23/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1600Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1920 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jan), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (25 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 215 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 007/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 011/015-021/030-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 75% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/22 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 145.8 -8.7 |
| Last 30 days | 159.9 +39.2 |