Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
30/1416Z from Region 3976 (N13E42). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and
likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day
three (02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 30/1911Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at
30/1803Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
30/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| Class M | 45% | 50% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 184 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 195
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 019/026-016/024-011/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/29 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 145.3 -9.2 |
| Last 30 days | 145.3 +10.1 |