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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
01/1319Z from Region 3977 (N19E14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 01/1333Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 01/0026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 01/0028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (02 Feb, 04 Feb)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Feb). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03
Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 188 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 190/195/195 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 020/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 013/014-010/010-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/02 | M2.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| February 2025 | 145 -9.5 |
| Last 30 days | 143.6 +3.8 |