Viewing archive of Monday, 10 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/0046Z from Region 3981 (N07W84). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (11 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 10/0417Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 09/2237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 09/2354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 658 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (13 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 159 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 016/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 015/018-012/015-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 55% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/11 | M1.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| February 2025 | 156.9 +19.9 |
| Last 30 days | 149.3 +0.1 |