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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
16/1838Z from Region 3998 (S14E66). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 681 km/s at 15/2231Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 16/0635Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 16/0536Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3933 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 185 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 020/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 011/012-014/016-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/21 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/02/19 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| February 2025 | 152.1 +15.1 |
| Last 30 days | 149.7 -13.9 |