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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
24/0702Z from Region 4000 (N17W34). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26
Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 24/1939Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 24/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
24/1737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26
Feb, 27 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 203 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 193
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 008/008-008/006-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/25 | M3.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/02/19 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| February 2025 | 156.7 +19.7 |
| Last 30 days | 154.6 +0.4 |