Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 March 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar,
16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 13/1858Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 13/1640Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 13/1821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1561 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled to
active levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 175 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 018/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 024/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 021/030-018/024-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/11 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/13 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 119.8 -34.8 |
| Last 30 days | 143 -4.6 |