Předpověď počasí ve vesmíru - diskuse

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 13 0030 UTC
Připraveno americkým ministerstvem obchodu, NOAA, střediskem pro předpověď vesmírného počasí a zpracováno na SpaceWeatherLive.com

Sluneční aktivita

24 h Shrnutí

Solar flare activity remains categorically low due to only C-Class flares being observed, but the frequency of the flares has increased. There have been nearly 20 C-Class flares observed from an unclassified region just beyond the east limb near S17. Region 4019 (N06E04, Dac/beta-delta) exhibited growth throughout the period in its intermediate region but has been relatively quiet. Region 4021 (S06E42, Cai/beta-delta) also grew in the number of spots and had a C3.5 at 12/0402 UTC. There have been no Earth-directed CMEs in the coronagraph imagery.

Předpověď

Despite the elevated activity beyond the east limb, the forecast for flare activity remains low until the upcoming region(s) come into view. Therefore, there will remain a chance for M-Class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) flaring 13-15 Mar. If the two regions with delta configurations, Regions 4019 and 4021, were more active, probabilities for X-class activity would have increased. But, given they have been relatively quiet, chances for R3 Strong events remain low (5%).

Energetické částice

24 h Shrnutí

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit has been oscillating around 1000 pfu throughout most of the period. A gradual rise in the solar wind speeds may be suppressing the elevated electron flux. Regardless, the event continues. GOES-16 recorded a max of 1,990 pfu at 12/1550 UTC. With no notable flares, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux has remained at background.

Předpověď

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to rise at or above threshold during the diurnal maxima through 15 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux will remain at background.

Solární bouře

24 h Shrnutí

Solar wind parameters became enhanced starting between 12/06-09 UTC. During this time there was a jump in the density, rise in the solar wind speeds, and an increase in the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. The arrival of the corotating interacting region ahead of the negative polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) is the most likely culprit of this disturbance. Total field has been between 7-12 nT with much of the period having a constant southward Bz component near -10 nT. Solar wind speeds have risen now towards 550 km/s. The phi angle has been primarily in the negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Předpověď

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 15 Mar due to the continued connection with the CH HSS.

Geoprostor

24 h Shrnutí

The geomagnetic field reached G1-Minor storming levels during the 15-18 UTC and 21-24 UTC synoptic periods, but has been unsettled to active otherwise.

Předpověď

Due to the continued southward orientation of the IMF, G1-Minor storming conditions are expected to continue. Earth is expected to maintain its geoeffective connection with the negative polarity CH 13-15 Mar. Conditions during this time will remain at active levels. -Bri