Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
06/1104Z from Region 3981 (N08W31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08
Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 06/1815Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 06/0402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (09 Feb).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 188 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 010/012-008/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/08 | M2.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| February 2025 | 162.8 +25.8 |
| Last 30 days | 148.5 -1.7 |