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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
07/0921Z from Region 3981 (N08W42). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09
Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 639 km/s at 07/0228Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
07/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
07/1314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 174 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (09 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (10 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 182 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 185/182/180 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 007/008-011/014-019/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/08 | M2.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| February 2025 | 165.4 +28.4 |
| Last 30 days | 148.8 -1.5 |