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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
08/0927Z from Region 3981 (N08W56). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 08/1816Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 08/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Feb), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (10 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (11 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 173 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 175/175/185 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 011/014-019/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 60% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/08 | M2.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| February 2025 | 165.4 +28.4 |
| Last 30 days | 147.3 -3.6 |