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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
27/2324Z from Region 3998 (S14W84). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar,
03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 847 km/s at 28/1828Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 28/0344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 27/2311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 489 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 155 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 024/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 021/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 014/015-007/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/25 | M3.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/02/28 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| Last 30 days | 154.8 +10.3 |