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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1150Z from Region 4016 (S26E35). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 05/0100Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
04/2142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 651 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet levels on
day two (07 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 157 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 009/010-005/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/05 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/02/28 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| March 2025 | 124.8 -12.2 |
| Last 30 days | 145.3 +2.5 |